Finance / FIELD NOTES
Building Falsifiable Research Notes
Separating hypothesis, evidence, and conclusion to leave clear trail markers for your future self.
CONTENTS / TABLE OF CONTENTS
Write Down the Hypothesis FirstPreserving Alternative ExplanationsPeriodic RetrospectivesWrite Down the Hypothesis First
A research log should open with a distinct inquiry. Document explicitly what you anticipate observing, and what specific counter-evidence would invalidate that expectation.
Preserving Alternative Explanations
A single phenomenon often admits multiple plausible causes. Disentangling hard facts from deductive leaps and unknowns prevents mistaking a compelling narrative for an empirical conclusion.
Periodic Retrospectives
Record the information available at the time alongside the decision date. In future post-mortems, the focus is not whether the outcome happened to be fortunate, but whether the reasoning process can be refined. (Research methodology note; not financial advice).